Breakout Performances: Justin Masterson

Justin Masterson is making his 5th start of the season tonight against the Kansas City Royals. Through his first four starts of the 2011 season, Masterson is 4-0 with a 1.71 ERA.

Since acquiring Masterson at the 2009 trading deadline from the Red Sox as part of the Victor Martinez trade, the Indians have held steadfast to their plan to develop Masterson as a starting pitcher, despite his previous success in the bullpen. Masterson, they theorized, did not have the sort of electric stuff that would generate loads of strikeouts make him a shut down reliever, but rather that his balanced repertoire, apparent durability and ability to induce ground balls would make him far more valuable, long term, as a starting pitcher.

Through 2010, this plan was good only in theory, as Masterson had a particular difficulty with left handed hitters. His long three quarters delivery and sinking fastball action made him very tough on righties, but lefthanders didn’t have to deal with the fact that the ball appeared to be coming straight at them out of his hand. Note the splits, from 2008 through 2010.

Against lefthanders:

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	PA	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	PA/BB	PA/K	PA/HR
2008	178	6	25	28	0.238	0.365	0.422	7.120	6.357	29.667
2009	301	6	37	51	0.323	0.407	0.470	8.135	5.902	50.167
2010	443	10	46	58	0.290	0.370	0.414	9.630	7.638	44.300
LHB Total	922	22	108	137	0.291	0.381	0.433	8.537	6.730	41.909

And against righthanders:

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	PA	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	PA/BB	PA/K	PA/HR
2008	187	4	15	40	0.196	0.274	0.298	12.467	4.675	46.750
2009	267	6	23	68	0.203	0.289	0.302	11.609	3.926	44.500
2010	359	4	27	82	0.263	0.331	0.350	13.296	4.378	89.750
RHB Total	813	14	65	190	0.228	0.304	0.322	12.508	4.279	58.071

The splits are striking. Masterson was walking only one of every 12.5 righties, and one out of every 8.5 lefties. He was striking out one of every 4.3 righties, and only striking out one of every 6.7 lefties. He was allowing a home run to a righthander once only every 58 plate appearances, but allowing one to a lefty one every 41.9. In essence, against righties he looked like a Cy Young-level Felix Hernandez, while against righties he was a late-model Nate Robertson. This led to opposing managers stacking lefthanded hitters in the lineup. In 2010, over 55% of the batters Masterson faced were from the left side.

Noting these troubles against lefties, many commentators begin to call for Masterson to be put back into the bullpen. There, it was argued, it would be easier for his own team to manage the players he pitched against, guaranteeing he’d face a majority of righthanded batters. The Red Sox were rumored to have contacted the Indians several times last summer about reacquiring Masterson to help solve their ongoing bullpen problems. The Indians held firm though, believing that the only way Masterson would improve against lefties would be to get experience pitching against them. Since the Indians weren’t playing for much other than pride and experience, Manny Acta left Masterson in the rotation to take his lumps. At the end of 2010, he was 6-13 with a 4.70 ERA.

In 2011 though, Masterson has been one of the best pitchers in the American League – fourth in the AL in ERA (and the only pitcher not in the AL West in the top 6), tied for second in wins, and, most importantly, one of only three qualified AL pitchers who have not yet allowed a home run. So, can he keep it up? Has Masterson figured out lefthanders, and is on his way to a run as the ace of the suddenly competitive Cleveland Indians? Or will the Royals and the rest of the AL spend the next month sending Masterson back to earth?

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	PA	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	PA/BB	PA/K	PA/HR
RHB Total	48	0	4	5	0.140	0.229	0.140	12.000	9.600	(INF)
LHB Total	60	0	5	10	0.283	0.356	0.377	12.000	6.000	(INF)

As you can see, righties are as punchless as ever against him. Those of you who have seen him this year have seen just about everyone who comes up against him from the right side hit a meek groundout. His batting average against on balls in play is extremely low, but as a ground ball pitcher in front of what appears to be a good defense, a low BABIP wouldn’t be a shock.

However, there do look to be some real improvements against lefthanded batters as well. His walk rate against lefties, which had been improving consistently throughout his career, has been up to once every 12 batters, right around his career mark against righthanders. More striking, though, is the drop in SLG – 53 points lower than his career numbers, and 37 points lower than the career best he established last year. Still, it’s a little early to call this a sustained improvement – a couple hanging breaking balls to Alex Gordon, and we’re right there again.

So far, Masterson’s pitching line profiles with about a 3.67 ERA in front of a normal defense. Giving that Cleveland’s defense appears above average, and that Masterson allows more ground balls than most, I’m comfortable putting his equivalent ERA so far in 2011 around a 3.50. We need to see continued stinginess with the long ball to designate this a true breakout performance, but so far in 2011, Masterson is rewarding the Indians patience.

Photo Credit: By Keith Allison on Flickr (Originally posted to Flickr as “Justin Masterson”) [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (www.creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/48/Justin_Masterson_on_August_30%2C_2009.jpg

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Statistics from Baseball-Reference

Welcome back, Grady!

The Dunne Deal fan favorite Grady Sizemore returned to the Indians lineup today, and hit his first home run since August 27, 2009. Sizemore also doubled, leading the surprising Indians to a sweep of the Orioles, and giving Fausto Carmona his first win of 2011.

From 2005 through 2008, Sizemore hit .281/.372/.496, averaging 41 2B, 7 3B, 27 HR and 29 SB a year, while playing very good center field defense. In 2006, as a 23 year old, he led the American League in wins above replacement (as calculated by baseball-reference). Grady is still only 28, so if he is healthy, the Indians could very well be for real.

Indians scalp Boston

It’s hard to win every year. The Boston Red Sox haven’t had a losing season since 1997, and won the World Series a mere 15 months ago. Reading their newspapers and listening to their fans though, it doesn’t seem to be enough. The idea that they could possibly finish in third place one year led to radio talkshow hosts and newspaper writers ripping the team for tearing apart the ballclub, and most recently, for losing their star center fielder.

When Johnny Damon left, the Red Sox were left with a gaping hole in centerfield. They were supposedly on the verge of getting Jeremy Reed from the Mariners when the Damon signing was announced, at which point, it seems the M’s upped their price. Since then, super-prospect Andy Marte’s name was thrown around in every deal imaginable until yesterday, when he, catcher Kelly Shoppach, pitcher Guillermo Mota and a player to be named later were shipped to Cleveland for CF Coco Crisp, C Josh Bard and P David Riske.

While centerfield was a legitimate need for Boston, and it was filled, this trade reeks of being a panic deal. The Boston front office didn’t think they could sell their team as rebuilding. How could a team with a $115M payroll be rebuilding? Of course they should be competitive every year, as the thinking seems to go.

The Red Sox will be competitive this year, and, with their resources, should continue to be competitive. As a friend said to me earlier, there’s a fine line between trying to be competitive every year, and targeting a year to win. Instead of being competitive though, this team had the chance to put together a team that would be great, with Marte at the forefront and been a legit title contender from 2007 going forward.

Really, to call Marte a prospect is a bit of a misnomer. He’d have been in the majors on nearly any team by midseason last year if the Braves didn’t have Chipper Jones in front of him. He hit .275/.372/.506 22 homers in 389 AAA AB’s last year, while, at 21, he was also one of the younger players in the league. People scoffed that he was unproven, but minor league numbers for hitters tend to translate very well to the major league level. To boot, Marte was rated the #1 prospect in all of baseball by Baseball Prospectus before the 2005 season: “Marte has that rare combination of high upside and low risk. No one else on this (top prospect) list has that.”

Crisp is undoubtedly a useful outfielder, but he’s a bit of a tweener. He’s not a good defensive centerfielder, but his hitting stats aren’t really strong enough for him to be a plus corner guy. At center, his bat will be a plus, and it’s not impossible that he’ll outproduce the man he’s replacing in 2006, and fairly likely that he’ll be the better player a couple years down the road. Still, his star potential is low, while Marte’s is through the roof.

When making a trade, teams tend to deal from their strengths. Boston completely neglected that. They’re an old team, with no power potential in the high minors, and an overstock of mid-rotation starters. It seems hard to believe that they wouldn’t have been able to find a replacement level placeholder for a guy like David Wells or Matt Clement, to tide them over until next offseason.

Which brings us to why the trade was such a mistake for Boston. After 2006, they won’t have Mike Lowell’s contract on, as well as Trot Nixon’s. There are always good outfielders available, and almost never very good 3B. By keeping Marte in place, they’d have had a cheap, productive player (and, possibly a cheap STAR player), who wouldn’t even be eligible for a raise until 2009. When you have cheap players at key positions, you can go out and buy a Cliff Floyd, and, when you have the Red Sox pockets, you can even overpay a little for him.

Cleveland meanwhile, is smiling from ear to ear. They added a LF in the highly underrated Jason Michaels, a 30 year career backup with a lifetime .291/.380/.442 line in 808 AB’s. If he can maintain close to that OBP, then he could actually be an upgrade over Crisp, who posted a career-high of .345 last year. More importantly, they can take Aaron Boone, an absolute out machine in 2005 (.299 OBP) and replace him with a young stud of a 3B in Marte.

As far as the other players are concerned, Riske is a better pitcher than Mota, though Francona’s ability to handle a bullpen is an open question, and the Indians have depth in their bullpen, as well as starters who go deep into games. The catcher exchange is almost laughable. The Red Sox apparently wanted a “proven veteran” to be their backup catcher, while the Indians seem to be more interested in having someone who is a good baseball player as theirs. Shoppach’s not a top prospect, but his upside is Javy Lopez before his inexplicable late career power surge. Bard’s upside is that he could beat out John Flaherty for the chance to catch Tim Wakefield, and hit as high as .240 with no walks or power. That’s not entirely fair, as Bard does have an excellent defensive reputation, and is a fairly capable backup as long as your starter never gets hurt. Shoppach, however, won’t embarrass himself if the Indians are without Victor Martinez for an extended period, and could be leveraged into a pitcher at midseason.

All things considered, with Crisp solidifying CF, the Red Sox should win around 90 games. If Schilling and Beckett both stay healthy, and Papelbon is allowed to start, they could take the division. The Indians though, now have to be considered the favorites in the American league. They had the best run differential in the American League last year, with a young improving team that rocketed in the second half thanks largely to guys like Victor Martinez and Grady Sizemore. They upgraded third base substantially, didn’t take a major downgrade at any position, and many of their young players are good bets to continue improving. The AL Central is a tough division, but these guys were the class of it going in, and they’re even better now.